广东工业大学学报 ›› 2024, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (05): 72-79.doi: 10.12052/gdutxb.230058
陈漪淇1, 谭啸1, 何昊1, 李楠2, 陈光1, 蔡云楠1
Chen Yi-qi1, Tan Xiao1, He Hao1, Li Nan2, Chen Guang1, Cai Yun-nan1
摘要: 城市热岛(Urban Heat Island, UHI) 对热舒适、能源和生态安全有重要影响。准确预测日最大城市热岛强度(Maximum Urban Heat Island Intensity, UHIImax)可以预警能源消耗和保障室外热安全。基于局地气候分区(Local Climate Zone, LCZ)框架,在广州选择多个LCZ分区,并进行长达3年的局地气候观测。基于实测结果验证一个欧洲学者提出的未考虑人为热的日UHIImax诊断方程的适用性;进一步检验考虑人为热后扩展方程在广州的适用性。结果表明,该原始方程诊断结果与观测结果的相关系数为0.63,均方根误差(Root Mean Square Error, RMSE)为1.50 K,平均绝对误差(Median Absolute Error, MEAE)为0.97 K,d=0.60,诊断精度可适用。考虑人为热的扩展方程比原始方程诊断结果更加准确,RMSE降低了0.12 K,MEAE降低了0.10 K,d增加了0.04。方程在不同的LCZ的检验结果存在差异表明应针对不同的LCZ特征对方程进行修正,但增加人为热可提升在各LCZ的诊断表现。综上,该修正方程可以作为预测局地UHI发展的工具,提高湿热地区局地UHI的诊断精度。
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