基于引力模型的广东与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易潜力研究

doi:10.12052/gdutxb.210051

Abstract

Abstract: "The Belt and Road" has become an important driving force for the development of our country's foreign trade. As China's foreign trade has generally declined due to the impact of the epidemic, China's trade with "the Belt and Road" market has risen. As the largest trade province in the country in terms of total trade volume, Guangdong has less than a quarter of its total foreign trade volume with "the Belt and Road". It can be seen that countries along "the Belt and Road" still have great potential for Guangdong's foreign trade, and the trade potential needs to be released urgently. Based on the trade gravity model,15 representative countries along the route from 2008 to 2018 are selected, and the value of their trade potential with Guangdong is calculated. It is found that GDP, geographic distance, economic development gap, and foreign direct investment will all affect foreign trade flows to varying degrees. The results show that most countries still have a lot of room for trade development in Guangdong. Corresponding policy recommendations are put forward, including adjusting trade layout, improving trade policies, optimizing the transportation system, and increasing technology-oriented direct investment.

Key words: gravity model, the Belt and Road, trade potential, Guangdong

CLC Number:

F742

Liu Yun, Sun Jie, Wang Ting, Liao Rou-ling. A Research on the Trade Potential of Guangdong and "the Belt and Road" Based on the Gravity Model[J].Journal of Guangdong University of Technology, 2022, 39(02): 66-71.

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