广东工业大学学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (06): 9-16.doi: 10.12052/gdutxb.200078

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基于SFN故障模式的最终事件故障概率分布确定方法

李莎莎1, 崔铁军2   

  1. 1. 辽宁工程技术大学 工商管理学院，辽宁 葫芦岛 125105;
    2. 辽宁工程技术大学 安全科学与工程学院，辽宁 阜新 123000
  • 收稿日期:2020-06-11 出版日期:2020-11-02 发布日期:2020-11-02
  • 通信作者: 崔铁军(1983-)，男，副教授，主要研究方向为系统可靠性及力学系统稳定性，E-mail：ctj.159@163.com E-mail:ctj.159@163.com
  • 作者简介:李莎莎(1988-)，女，博士研究生，主要研究方向为安全管理及系统可靠性
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金资助项目（51704141，52004120）；国家重点研发计划项目（2017YFC1503102）

The Determination Method for Fault Probability Distribution of Target Event Based on Fault Mode of SFN

Li Sha-sha1, Cui Tie-jun2   

  1. 1. School of Business Administration, Liaoning Technical University, Huludao 125000, China;
    2. College of Safety Science and Engineering, Liaoning Technical University, Fuxin 123000, China
  • Received:2020-06-11 Online:2020-11-02 Published:2020-11-02

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摘要： 为研究空间故障网络（Space Fault Network，SFN）中故障模式的最终事件故障概率分布（Fault Probability Distribution of Target Event，TEFPD），在不同情况下确定分布特征，提出不同情况下的TEFPD确定方法。研究对象为单元故障演化过程和全事件诱发+最终事件过程两种。根据原因事件和结果事件的关系，分析方法分为比较形式方法和继承形式方法。根据故障模式中事件存在性，故障概率分布处理方式分为最大值方法和平均值方法。考虑多因素影响，将事件故障概率分布引入到分析中，得到各种情况下的TEFPD。通过一个简单故障模式得到TEFPD，最终总结各种方式得到的TEFPD的特征显著程度。

关键词: 安全系统工程, 系统故障演化过程, 空间故障网络, 最终事件, 故障概率分布确定

Abstract: To study the fault probability distribution of target event (TEFPD) of fault modes in space fault network (SFN), the distribution characteristics are determined under different conditions, and the determination methods of TEFPD under different conditions are proposed. The research objects are unit fault evolution process and all event induction + target event process. According to the relationships between cause events and result events, the analysis methods are divided into comparative form method and inheritance form method. According to the existence of events in fault modes, the processing methods of fault probability distribution can be divided into maximum method and average method. Considering the influence of many factors, the fault probability distribution of event is introduced into the analysis, and TEFPD is obtained under various conditions. TEFPD is obtained through a simple fault mode. Finally, the significance of TEFPD characteristics obtained by various methods is summarized.

Key words: safety system engineering, system fault evolution process, space fault network, target event, determination of fault probability distribution

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